MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY — A few strong storms could develop across parts of the Mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday November 11. Our latest storm outlook places southern Illinois, western Kentucky, southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee under a Level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather. Regular thunderstorms are also expected across a much wider area, from Iowa and Illinois down to Mississippi and Alabama.
Key Numbers at a Glance
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Severe risk level | Level 1 of 5, Marginal |
| Outlook issued | 1:30 PM CST Monday November 9 |
| Risk begins | 6:00 AM CST Wednesday November 11 |
| Risk ends | 6:00 AM CST Thursday November 12 |
| Main severe zone | Southern Illinois, western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, northwest Tennessee |
| Thunderstorm zone | Iowa to Alabama, plus Florida and the Gulf Coast |
Where It Is Hitting
The highest risk sits right where several states meet along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers:
- Southern Illinois sits in the heart of the Marginal Risk area.
- Western Kentucky is also inside the zone where isolated severe storms are possible.
- Southeast Missouri, including the Bootheel, falls within the risk area.
- Northwest Tennessee is included along the southern edge of the zone.
- Northeast Arkansas sits along the western edge of the risk area.
A wider area of regular thunderstorms stretches across Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. Separate areas of thunderstorms are also possible across much of Florida and along the Texas and Louisiana coast.
When to Expect It
- Wednesday morning: Storms begin developing as the risk period starts at 6:00 AM CST.
- Wednesday afternoon and evening: The best chance for stronger storms in the Mid Mississippi Valley.
- Wednesday night: Storms continue moving east before the risk period ends at 6:00 AM CST Thursday.
Why This Is Happening
A storm system moving through the middle of the country is pulling warm, moist air north ahead of it. When that moisture meets lift from the system, thunderstorms can form. In a small area, winds and instability could line up just enough for a few storms to turn strong.
A Level 1 Marginal Risk is the lowest severe category. It means most storms will stay below severe levels, but one or two could briefly turn severe.
What This Means for You
For most people, Wednesday will bring rain, thunder and lightning rather than severe weather. In the Marginal Risk area, an isolated storm could produce gusty winds or small to moderate hail. Even a brief strong storm can knock down tree limbs or cause short power outages.
Commuters may run into heavy downpours that reduce visibility and make roads slick. Outdoor plans, especially in the afternoon and evening, could be interrupted by storms.
Understanding the Risk Levels
| Level | Name | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marginal | Isolated severe storms possible |
| 2 | Slight | Scattered severe storms possible |
| 3 | Enhanced | Numerous severe storms possible |
| 4 | Moderate | Widespread severe storms likely |
| 5 | High | Widespread, intense severe storms expected |
How to Stay Safe
- Head indoors when thunder roars, since lightning can strike miles from a storm.
- Secure outdoor items like patio furniture and trash cans before storms arrive.
- Avoid flooded roads, especially during heavy downpours.
- Charge your phone and keep weather alerts turned on.
- Know your safe place, such as an interior room away from windows, in case a warning is issued.
- Check the forecast Wednesday morning, since outlooks can be upgraded closer to the event.
Boxingessential.com will continue tracking the severe storm and thunderstorm threat across Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee and will provide updates as storm timing, risk levels and any warnings develop on Wednesday.
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